(CNN) — This was supposed to be a year of recovery for a travel i ndustry hit hard by the global coronavirus pandemic.But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have just changed that.
After two years of disrupted travel due to ever-changing Covid-19 restrictions, airlines and tour operators are once again bracing for closed skies, cancellations and a cloud of uncertainty over international travel.
More than 30 countries have so far closed their airspace to Russia, with Moscow reacting in kind. Russia’s Civil Aviation Authority announced it has closed off its airspace to the carriers of at least 37 countries as of Tuesday. The airspace over Ukraine, Moldova and parts of Belarus also remains closed.
In the short-term this means flight cancellations or a diversion of air routes. But the long-term consequences for the travel industry could be much more far reaching. Here’s why:
Rising fuel costs will hike travel prices
Global crude oil prices surged to more than $110 per barrel on Wednesday as investors fear Russian energy exports will be limited or halted as a result of the conflict in Ukraine.
These price surges will make any type of travel more expensive. Coupled with potentially longer air routes that need more fuel as they circumvent closed Russian air space, the higher prices will eventually need to be passed on to the consumer.
Europe’s biggest airline Lufthansa said the Asia detours will cost a «single-digit-million-euro» amount per month. Addressing reporters during a company earnings update on Thursday, Lufthansa chief financial officer Remco Steenbergen said the carrier will need to hike ticket prices to offset the rise in fuel prices and other costs.
A spike in fares could lead to lower demand — and that spells bad news for an industry already struggling to make up for pandemic-related losses, not to mention inflation.
Safety fears could weaken demand
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency, known as EASA, has warned of a «high risk» to civilian aircraft flying near the Ukrainian border. Airspace over Russia, Belarus, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova is also on the risk list.
EASA doubled the size of the warning zone around Ukraine on Friday, fearing «mid-range missiles penetrating into controlled airspace.» The agency added, «in particular, there is a risk of both intentional targeting and misidentification of civil aircraft.»
EASA’s warning will not be taken lightly after Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine in 2014, killing 298 people. Investigators said the missile that brought the plane down was fired from a launcher belonging to Russia’s 53rd anti-aircraft missile brigade.
For many travelers and crew already spooked by coronavirus concerns, the idea of flying anywhere near a conflict zone may be too much.
«It is likely that destinations close to Russia will suffer as consumers will fear the proximity of war, even if that is irrational, based on no declared threat from Russia,» Olivier Ponti, vice president of insights at travel analytics company ForwardKeys, told CNN.
«The US market is likely to be deterred significantly from visiting Eastern Europe and deterred, although not quite so much, from visiting western Europe,» he added.
Fuente: edition.cnn.com
